Markus Schultze, Burkhardt Rockel (2017): Direct and semi-direct effects of aerosol climatologies on long-term climate simulations over Europe. Climate Dynamics, pp 1–24, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3808-5
This study compares the direct and semi-direct aerosol effects of different annual cycles of tropospheric aerosol loads for Europe from 1950 to 2009 using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM, which is laterally forced by reanalysis data and run using prescribed, climatological aerosol optical properties. These properties differ with respect to the analysis strategy and the time window, and are then used for the same multi-decadal period. Five simulations with different aerosol loads and one control simulation without any tropospheric aerosols are integrated and compared. Two common limitations of our simulation strategy, to fully assess direct and semi-direct aerosol effects, are the applied observed sea surface temperatures and sea ice conditions, and the lack of short-term variations in the aerosol load. Nevertheless, the impact of different aerosol climatologies on common regional climate model simulations can be assessed. The results of all aerosol-including simulations show a distinct reduction in solar irradiance at the surface compared with that in the control simulation. This reduction is strongest in the summer season and is balanced primarily by a weakening of turbulent heat fluxes and to a lesser extent by a decrease in longwave emissions. Consequently, the seasonal mean surface cooling is modest. The temperature profile responses are characterized by a shallow near-surface cooling and a dominant warming up to the mid-troposphere caused by aerosol absorption. The resulting stabilization of stratification leads to reduced cloud cover and less precipitation. A decrease in cloud water and ice content over Central Europe in summer possibly reinforce aerosol absorption and thus strengthen the vertical warming. The resulting radiative forcings are positive. The robustness of the results was demonstrated by performing a simulation with very strong aerosol forcing, which lead to qualitatively similar results. A distinct added value over the default aerosol setup of Tanré et al. (1984) was found in the simulations with more recent aerosol data sets for solar irradiance. The improvements are largest under low cloud conditions, while overestimated cloud cover in all setups causes a common underestimation of low and medium values of solar irradiance. In addition, the prevalent cold bias in the COSMO-CLM is reduced in winter and spring when using updated aerosol data. Our results emphasize the importance of semi-direct aerosol effects, especially over Central Europe in terms of changes in turbulent fluxes and changes in cloud properties. We also suggest to replace the default Tanré et al. (1984) aerosol climatology with more recent and realistic data sets. Thereby, a better model performance in comparison to observations can be achieved, or the masking of model shortcomings due to a too strong direct aerosol forcing thus far is prevented.